Transition Derby

Guardian - A post-oil world gets less sci-fi by the day

Just think back to summer last year when oil prices spiked to $150 a barrel – 10 times the level of a decade earlier. In petrol stations in some European countries, people started to drive off without paying and drivers had to be banned from filling cars before they had paid up. In Britain, people stole heating oil out of the tanks that sit outside many houses in the country. Imagine what would happen if prices rose, say, to $300 a barrel. Or higher. Not only would it become too expensive to drive unless absolutely necessary, but food would become prohibitively expensive to transport, goods from China would be too expensive to ship, and plastics, which come from oil, would be unaffordable. The cold turkey after more than a century of cheap oil would be painful indeed. For developing countries it would be fatal – many could not afford energy at those prices. View original article

Telegraph - The rise and fall of oil production

Conventional oil powers modern economies and provides around a third of the world's energy. But many commentators forecast a near-term peak soon and subsequent decline in global production as the resource is depleted. Some expect this to lead to major economic disruption, with "non-conventional" sources being unable to fill the gap in the timescale required. To date, the debate on "peak oil" has had little influence on UK energy policy. But a combination of strong demand growth, erosion of spare capacity and ominous warnings from analysts has heightened concerns. Global production increased only marginally between 2004 and 2008, despite record high prices. While the recession has reduced demand, prices remain around $80 per barrel and the cancellation and delay of upstream projects could lead to shortages when the economy recovers. Two physical features of oil resources make a peak in global production inevitable. View original article

Times - E.ON plant plans raise fear of gas-dependent Britain

E.ON’s claim that it had ditched the plans for Kingsnorth because of a shortage of UK electricity demand. It has stoked concerns that Britain is becoming increasingly reliant on gas for electricity generation, even as supplies of the fuel from the North Sea are rapidly being depleted. This winter, Britain will have to import half its natural gas, against 5 per cent in 2004, when it ceased to be a net exporter for the first time. View orignal article

Telegraph - Britain faces gas shortage in six years due to Russia

Britain is facing an energy shortfall by 2015 over its exposure to six risky Russian gas developments, if the UK becomes much more dependent on imports from abroad, according to Ofgem. Regional tensions between Russia, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan and Turkey mean that there are many shifting alliances and projects competing for finite funding. There is also a risk that Russian producers could divert supplies to China. View orignal article