Predicting the price of oil is a slippery business. In summer 2008 the price of a barrel peaked to almost $147 per barrel. So was the high peak in prices a temporary blip? Or do we need to prepare for an era of higher oil and energy prices? Within the current financial climate, how do we frame this trend against one of the most significant challenges we face - climate change?
What does this mean for local authorities?
Here is some background information:
Intros to Peak Oil:
The Oil Depletion Analysis Centre (ODAC) has put together a report specifically aimed at Local Authorities. This has a really good intro to peak oil concepts.
http://www.odac-info.org/sites/default/files/Preparing_for_Peak_Oil_0.pdf
The Local Government Association published a paper called ‘Volatile Times' in 2009. It looks at the challenges faced by local authorities through the lens of peak oil and climate change.
Volatile times - Transport, climate change and the price of oil (PDF, 24 pages, 1354KB)
The UK Industry Task-Force on Peak Oil and Energy Security (ITPOES) was formed in 2008 by six UK companies - Arup, Foster + Partners, Scottish and Southern Energy, Solarcentury, Stagecoach Group and Virgin. They have produced 2 reports both based on independent analyses. They conclude that a peak in oil production may happen in the middle of this decade.
The first report in 2008, provides a brief peak oil intro and is notable for the analysis by Shell plc.
http://peakoiltaskforce.net/wp-content/uploads/2008/10/oil-report-final.pdf
The second report produced in Feb 2010 is even more urgent in its conclusions and details effects on industry.
http://peakoiltaskforce.net/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/final-report-uk-itpoes_report_the-oil-crunch_feb20101.pdf
UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC) published a report at the end of 2009 entitled: Global Oil Depletion, - What evidence is there to support the proposition that the global supply of 'conventional oil' will be constrained by physical depletion before 2030? This was an 18-month inquiry lead by a team of 8 academics and industry consultants. The UKERC report concludes the peak of conventional oil production is “likely” to occur before 2030, and there is a “significant risk” that it will come before 2020. This can be downloaded from their website.
Preparing for post-peak life is a video introduction to Peak Oil. Very US centric but comprehensive.
An Explanation of Oil Peaking - University of Reading, UK - December 2009; if you like graphs and figures this is the intro for you
And of course wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil
Political perspectives:
Building a Positive Future for Bristol after Peak Oil - Bristol City Council and the Bristol Partnership, Oct 2009. The way that Bristol is working with 3rd sector on these issues could be a model for Derby…
The Welsh Assembly published a paper in 2009 examining the theory of peak oil, and considers the implications for oil users of the impending peak.
http://www.wlga.gov.uk/english/archive-of-reports9/peak-oil-and-energy-uncertainty/
All Party Parliamentary Group on Peak Oil and Gas is a good resource.
Rebuilding Security - Conservative Energy Policy for an Uncertain World - The Conservative Party - March 2010
Lloyd’s of London and Chatham House ‘Sustainable Energy Security’ White Paper, highlights critical issues surrounding energy vulnerabilities and risks for business.
http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/files/16720_0610_froggatt_lahn.pdf
Market analysis, facts and figures re Oil price & production:
Medium-term crude oil outlook to 2015: a balancing act - Merril Lynch - February 2010
Oil Sketches - The Oil Crunch - Barclays Capital - February 2010
The Peak Oil Market - Deutsche Bank, October 2009; (Fig 18 & 21 are very telling)
Scenarios:
(First two links are climate change commitment focused.)
Project Discovery - Options for delivering secure and sustainable energy supplies - Ofgem - February 2010
Generating the Future: UK energy systems fit for 2050 - The Royal Academy of Engineering - March 2010
Future scenarios - planning for the cultural implications of peak oil and climate change by permaculture co-originator David Holmgren
A report for the US Department of Energy argues that large-scale programmes of substitution and demand reduction need to be initiated at least 20 years before the peak if serious shortfalls in liquid fuels supply are to be avoided. http://www.netl.doe.gov/publications/others/pdf/oil_peaking_NETL.pdf There’s quite a bit of evidence now, of course, that the we may be at the peak or even that peak may have occurred (without this demand reduction having taken place).
Transition Towns/Network initiatives:
http://www.transitionnetwork.org/sites/default/files/TransitionInitiativesPrimer%283%29.pdf
www.ttandc.org.uk The professional (not-for-profit) services arm of the Transition Network charity
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Written by Dave
Herbert Girardet -The Regenerative City